I. Climate Science

Continued fossil fuel expansion risks delaying electrification and prolonging exposure to volatile global energy markets 

By Mark Campanale, Carbon Tracker’s Founder and CEO 

As London prepares to host Climate Action Week, much of the discussion will focus on how to accelerate the energy transition through expanding renewable power generation and electrification. But building the new energy system is only half the challenge. 

The recent Santa Marta conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels reflected a growing recognition that managing contraction of the old energy system will require equal attention from policymakers and investors if we are to deliver a successful transition. 

The timing could hardly be more relevant. 

As conflict in the Middle East once again sends shockwaves through global energy markets, governments are facing renewed pressure to strengthen energy security. Predictably, many of the proposed solutions focus on expanding fossil fuel supply. 

Yet the lesson of recent years is not that countries need greater dependence on fossil fuels. It is that they need less. Time and again, geopolitical crises have exposed the vulnerabilities of energy systems built around internationally traded oil and gas. Price shocks originating thousands of miles away are transmitted directly into household bills, business costs and inflation rates. 

Yet despite repeated reminders of these vulnerabilities, the policy response often promotes more fossil fuel supply in the name of energy security. 

That response reflects an increasingly outdated view of transition risk. 

For years, much of the debate around fossil fuels centred on the risk of stranded assets. Investors were encouraged to consider whether oil and gas investments would lose value as the world transitioned towards cleaner energy systems. 

That question remains important. But a bigger risk is now emerging. Continued investment in fossil fuel expansion risks delaying the transition itself.  

The direction of travel in the global energy system is increasingly clear. Electrification, renewable energy and energy storage continue to improve in performance and cost. Across much of the world, they now represent the most attractive source of new energy investment. Yet while the destination is becoming clearer, the speed of the transition is not predetermined. 

Fossil fuel oversupply slows the transition by weakening the economics of electrification – suppressing energy prices, delaying infrastructure turnover and extending the life of incumbent systems. Rather than acting as a stabilising, transitional energy source they become a brake on transition progress. 

A successful transition requires fossil fuels to become the marginal supplier within a growing electricity-based economy rather than remaining the primary driver of energy supply and energy costs. 

This requires new economic and financial frameworks. For decades, markets have been organised around assumptions of production growth, reserve replacement and expanding supply. Yet the priorities of a successful transition are different: investment in electrification, grids, storage and industrial transformation; realistic assessments of long-term demand; stronger scrutiny of fossil fuel capital expenditure. 

This debate is particularly relevant in the UK. Calls for expanded North Sea drilling are frequently presented in terms of an “orderly transition”. But a transition that preserves stability for incumbent energy systems and markets in the short term may prove deeply disorderly for consumers, businesses and economies over the longer term. 

The real energy-security goal is to replace dependence on globally priced fuels with domestically produced clean electricity. Once built, clean power assets have very low operating costs and are largely insulated from the geopolitical shocks that repeatedly destabilise fossil fuel markets. This is why the transition is increasingly a competitiveness and cost-of-living story as much as a climate story. 

The prize for getting this right is not just lower emissions. It is lower and more stable energy costs, greater economic resilience, improved energy security and a more competitive economy. 

At a time of mounting geopolitical uncertainty, the objective should not be to prolong dependence on an increasingly volatile energy system. It should be to accelerate the emergence of a more resilient one. 

This op-ed was first published in Responsible Investor.

The post Energy security requires managed decline of fossil fuels appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Open access notables

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications

Here, we compile and evaluate standardized Holocene vertical accretion rates and coral community structure data from 288 Indo-Pacific paleo-reef records across 92 sites to examine intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of accretion. Our findings reveal that reef formation and long-term accretion are determined by a complex interplay between sea-level change and eco-geomorphological factors. Maximum vertical accretion rates indicate that many Indo-Pacific reefs do not have the capacity to keep pace with projected rates of sea-level rise, particularly under high-emissions scenario (76% of reef sites). Critical thresholds suggest that reef accretion is very unlikely (>90% probability) to be maintained when relative sea-level rise rate exceeds 5.3 mm yr−1, a scenario likely to be surpassed within ~35 years. Without substantial reductions in global emissions, many coral reefs face increasing risk of submergence, structural collapse and loss of critical ecosystem services, especially where modern coral communities differ from predominantly competitive Holocene assemblages and are increasingly dominated by weedy taxa.

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change, but its global estimates are still uncertain. While livestock are known to produce large amounts of methane, wild animals also emit methane during digestion. In this study, we estimate methane emissions from wild ruminants worldwide using a new spatial data set. We combine global information on species distributions and population sizes with a relationship that links body mass to methane emissions and estimate emissions across the globe. Our results suggest that wild ruminants emit about 2.95 Tg (Tg) of methane per year globally. This estimate is lower than values derived from the IPCC Tier 1 method (∼15 Tg yr−1) but is consistent with previous body-mass-based studies. Although uncertainties remain, mainly in population data and seasonal variability, this work provides a transparent baseline estimate of methane emissions from wild ruminants that can support global methane budget studies and atmospheric modeling.

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Roughly one-third of the global precipitation originates from the deep tropics where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) plays a central role. Even small shifts in this narrow band of intense rainfall can drive major regional hydrological changes both at seasonal and longer timescales, as exemplified by the prolonged Sahel drought of the late 20th century. Studies have attributed the southward migration of the ITCZ during the late 20th century to a larger concentration of aerosols over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at the time. A growing record of observations now reveal a northward migration of the ITCZ over the past four decades that is, a reversal in the ITCZ shift trend. In this study, we find that both a reduction in aerosols over the NH along with a global increase in greenhouse gases have contributed to this recent reversal in the ITCZ shift. The northward displacement of the ITCZ over the satellite era aligns with observed hemispheric asymmetries in Earth's albedo trends and reinforces model projections of further northward shifts in the decades ahead.

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science

We propose a model showing that taking an active role in stopping the spread of misinformation reduces its impact. To do this, we generalize the Maki–Thompson rumour model, where the population consists of spreaders, ignorants and stiflers. Spreaders try to spread the rumour through directed contacts. When a spreader contacts an ignorant, the ignorant becomes a spreader; otherwise, the initiating spreader becomes a stifler. In finite populations, the process reaches an equilibrium in which every individual is either a stifler or an ignorant. Our generalization adds a class of aware individuals who recognize the information as false. In a passive role, an aware individual exposed to misinformation simply avoids spreading it. In an active role, the aware individual not only refuses to propagate the rumour but also stops the spread by the contacting person. For homogeneously mixed populations, we prove limit theorems for the final proportion of ignorants as a function of the proportion of aware individuals and the probability of acting actively or passively. For populations represented by random networks, we perform computational analyses to compare both scenarios and find that propagation decreases sharply in active environments, with the largest differences occurring when awareness is about 30–40%.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, Robert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices, Chris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency. 115 articles in 63 journals by 704 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Episodic Slowdown of Global Warming by a Multiyear La Niña, Iwakiri & Kohyama, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0686.1

Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes, Mehling et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aed2633

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Arctic Mixed Layer Depth, Eisner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024063

Multi-scale drivers of compound day-night heatwaves in Shanghai, China (1873–2023): The role of asymmetric warming, oceanic modes, and urbanization, LIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.012

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Impacts, Mechanisms, and Challenges, He et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70077

Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change, Hamal & Pfahl, Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) Open Access pmh:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/52806

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback, Loon et al., ArXiv.org Open Access pdf pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2603.12515

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

The Nonmonotonicity of Moist-Adiabatic Warming, Miyawaki, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0099.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Radiative Heating of High-Level Clouds and Its Impacts on Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040850 12 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Air temperature trend analysis for the Cananéia–Iguape Coastal System (São Paulo State, Brazil), 1981–2022, using reanalysis products evaluated against surface observations, Baratto et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Open Access 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101676

Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001?2022), CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009

Disentangling internal and external impacts on increasing compound heat waves over the Yangtze River valley, Xie et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100927

Emergence of Subsurface Warming in the Southern Ocean Gateway Between New Zealand and Antarctica, Ferola et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121465

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013

Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea1277

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Drought, Heatwave and Compound Extremes in Saudi Arabia From 1984 to 2023: A Comprehensive Analysis, Kamruzzaman, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70404

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49677-0 36 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Evaluation of ERA5, ERA5-Land, CERRA and NEWA datasets in reproducing observed near-surface wind speeds across Spain, Plaza-Martín et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.011

Observed Trends and Variability in the Water Masses of the Southern Ocean, Wyatt et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023852

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
CODC-v1: a quality-controlled and bias-corrected ocean temperature profile database from 1940–2023, Scientific Data, 10.1038/s41597-024-03494-8 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo-Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability, Cetin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045816

Projected Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Activity Under Climate Change Scenario in East Asia, Byun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045725

Reduced Future North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Variability in High-Resolution, Fully Coupled Global Climate Models, Baker et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in the Typhoon Intensity under a Warming Climate: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Mangkhut, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0567.1 10 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Bias correction of CMIP6 models using quantile delta mapping for projecting future IDF curves: case study of the hyderabad metropolitan region, Saravanan & Ji, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-026-06366-w

Development of a PCA-based climatic similarity index to enhance weather file selection criteria for climate-based daylight modelling simulations in tropical climates, Aw et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58112-x

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice, Hossain et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121289

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Incorporation of RCM-simulated spatial details into climate change projections derived from global climate models, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07258-3 7 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Aufeis in a warming world: Global patterns, processes, and environmental implications, Li et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105590

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse, Kypke et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

Past, present and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt, 1500–2200 CE, Hanna et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00800-3

Understanding slow glacier flow under climate change: A case study on Vernagtferner, Austria, Dobler et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2531-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7 28 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise, McCormack et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1 9 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Commentary: Reframing Massive Carbon Input During the PETM and a Grand 66 Million Year Geoscience Puzzle, Dickens, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124011

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74612-w

Rapid warming in South America during the last deglaciation, Ampuero et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74093-x

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Controlling factors for the global meridional overturning circulation: A lesson from the Paleozoic, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adm7813 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Conspecific density and reproductive trade-offs govern population response to climate in a clonal wildflower, Loesberg & Williams, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70376

Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change, Tang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03759-7

Extreme weather effects on marine predator breeding outcomes in a global climate change hotspot, Sojitra et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aea3220

On the collapse of an endemic reef-building coral species, Morais et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108201

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Interactions Between Plants and Avian Frugivores Across the Americas, Rabeau et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70271

Projecting biodiversity change to support climate-smart ocean planning in Portugal, julien et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-026-00216-y

Significant Coastal Dune Loss Challenges California's Climate Resilience and Biodiversity Goals, Baxter et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007790

Temperate local extinctions from climate change are outpacing tropical extinctions, Murali et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02669-y

Tropical climate modes control strength and distribution of thermal stress mitigation in a coral reef refugia, Camelia et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-52941-6

Variation in bud set phenology, autumn frost tolerance and non-structural carbohydrates among white spruce seed sources on climate-contrasted test sites: implications for assisted migration, Analy et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1753580

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn9660 75 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aerosol source apportionment modelling using a coupled regional–urban scale system, Caspel et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-8575-2026

Cross-stressor resilience of soil microbial growth and carbon metabolism under climate change, Li et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70439

Dissecting mesopelagic particulate organic carbon budgets in the North Atlantic: A mechanistic diagnosis and evaluation of PISCESv2_RC, Orihuela-García et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-4083-2026

Dissimilar roles of aerosols, nitrogen deposition and ozone on the terrestrial carbon sink in China during 2010–2020, Xie et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5925-2026

Divergent responses of soil organic and inorganic carbon driven by land use during coastal reclamation, Zhai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74876-2

Efficient preservation of old methane-derived organic carbon in deep-sea surface sediments, Bao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74250-2

Greenhouse gas emissions from freshwater wetlands of the Doon Valley, Northwest Himalaya, India, Baiswar et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-50605-z

Hotspots of Arctic and sub-Arctic marine sediment organic carbon are dominated by the Baltic, Barents and Chukchi Seas, Langley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03720-8

Long-term multiple global change interactions amplify belowground carbon allocation, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02678-x

National pathways of land-use CO? emissions in the 21st century, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74836-w

Quantifying and Mapping Regional C, N and P Stocks From Temperate Fens, Bogs, and Forested Peatlands Using Detailed Peat Bathymetry, Arsenault et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009407

Role of Future Climate Change, Air Pollution Control and Methane Mitigation in Driving Hydroxyl Radical (OH) and Methane Lifetime, Chua, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.5281/zenodo.18894153

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009855

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49743-7 184 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Geomechanical characterization of reservoir and caprock integrity for CO2 sequestration assessment in the Jaisalmer Basin, India, Hembram et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-026-02797-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The effects of policy uncertainty and risk aversion on carbon capture, utilization, and storage investments, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114212 12 cites.

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Decarbonization

Sector-specific carbon emission trajectories in Beijing (2025–2035): a STIRPAT–LEAP coupled framework for identifying optimal decarbonization pathways, ZHANG et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1834206

Strong plans, weak levers: Identifying institutional limits to reducing car dependence in Finland, Lyly & Ghorbani, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104737

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1 86 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Compensation of Ocean Latent Heat to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Induced Cooling and Its Comparison to Volcanic Aerosols, Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023882

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02046-7 20 cites.

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Black carbon

Investigation of Black Carbon characteristics over the Arctic: Contribution of fossil fuel and biomass burning, Kumar & Srivastava, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122188

Aerosols

Insights into spring dust aerosol trends over North China from CMIP6 historical simulations and multi-source observations, Sha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109163

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

Substantial Diel Changes of Cloud Adjustments to Aerosols in Ship-Tracks, Yuan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121979

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024 3 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Climate advocacy and activism by scientists: A narrative review, Finnerty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000942

Crowdsourcing Activities for Climate Change Mitigation—Implementation, Opportunities, and Prospects, Wechsler et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0086.1

Disagreement among friends: a collaboration-based framework for reducing polarization on climate change, McGrath, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2683947

Governmental efficacy is a key psychological pathway to climate action, Goldwert et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03743-1

Green Is the New Bad Libertarian Populism and the Edgar Friendly Style of Climate Denial, Bellolio, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2691473

Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change, Flack et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2663476

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.252404

The relationship between future anxiety and global climate change awareness among physiotherapy students in Turkey: a cross-sectional study, Akaras & Sözlü, BMC Medical Education Open Access 10.1186/s12909-026-09696-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Widespread misestimates of greenhouse gas emissions suggest low carbon competence, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02032-z 47 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Carbon storage, climate resilience, and livelihoods in coffee agroforestry systems: a systematic review, Omer et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1865283

Impact of land use change on the long-term economic value of carbon sequestration in Central Alborz, Iran, Joloro et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58621-9

Regional variability in climate stress, adaptation strategies and resilience among smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: a systematic review, Amanje & Zhou, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1787495

The future fate of Somali upwelling productivity and the implications for fisheries under climate change, Jacobs et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-55455-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions, Carbon Management, 10.1080/17583004.2024.2365896 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100915

Comparative hydro-climatic datasets for catchment-wise linked water fluxes and storage changes across South America, Zarei & Destouni, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1764771

Contesting “climate solutionism”: Critical perspectives from the water-climate nexus, Wilson & Shah, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103185

Differential impacts of vegetation greening on evapotranspiration components across climate zones and vegetation types in China, Huo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111309

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

Synergistic pathways to mitigate climate and water scarcity risks, Lv et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01880-1

Water-Limited to Energy-Limited: Seasonal Transitions in Evapotranspiration Controls Across Southern Peninsular India Under Climate Change, Hasanapuram et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106876

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Phase and Amplitude Changes in Rainfall Annual Cycle Over Global Land Monsoon Regions Under Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108496 13 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate change as a macro-financial risk multiplier: evidence from private sector credit in fragile sub-Saharan Africa, Mohamed et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1872050

Comprehensive national climate damage assessments framework applied to the UK, Rising et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02665-2

Reconciling fiscal resilience with low-carbon energy goals: Sri Lanka's carbon-aligned fuel pricing, Heenkenda & Park, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115458

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of air transportation, trade openness, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1366054 20 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Abating industrial nitrous oxide emissions in the United States: legal, economic and scientific dimensions, Kanter et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2662997

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Editorial: A strategic nexus for enhancing system resilience: advancing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, managing water resources, and controlling air pollution in the industrial sector, Wang & Shao, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835218

Evaluation of household electricity cost burden under Japan's green transformation, Zhou et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115360

Fire risk mitigation underpins durable Nature-based Climate Solutions in the Amazon, Hari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03765-9

Just-ish Transition: Rethinking justice in practice in South Korea's coal phase-out, Lee et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104744

The possible institutionalisation of the carbon removal budget concept across the UNFCCC, UNCBD, and corporate net-zero strategies, Bencini & Iozzelli, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104390

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Effect of renewable energy subsidy policy on firms’ total factor productivity: The threshold effect, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114241 33 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Analyzing climate risks in the Indian automotive sector using a capability based approach, Gund et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1790120

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Building climate resilience: a systematic literature review of climate change adaptation efforts in Norwegian municipalities, Bakke & Sydnes, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100847

Global Renewable Energy Infrastructure Resilience Under Climate Risks, Hong et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70273

Rewriting the climate social contract: adaptation, equity, and indigenous rights in Aotearoa New Zealand, Parsons, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103161

Spatiotemporal evolution of cumulative power shortage risks in China under 2 °C warming, Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.016

What climate adaptation can learn from evolutionary adaptation, Waananen et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70343

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cross-border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.905 9 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Association of short-term ambient heat exposure with maternal anxiety for fetal health: examining the role of heatwave and climate change risk perception, WU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.007

Global heat stress intensification and its expanding footprint on the human population, Emerton et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02670-5

Integrating the Health Sector Into Nationally Determined Contributions: Challenges, Opportunities and Pathways for Climate Resilient Health Systems, Manyele & Anicetus, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70044

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk, Ecography, 10.1111/ecog.06942 15 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Testing Arctic exceptionalism under global tensions: climate change, geopolitics, and the strategic value of the Northern Sea Route, Chen et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access pdf 10.1057/s41599-026-07384-9

Climate change impacts on human culture

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8 36 cites.

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Other

A Conceptual Integration of Climate Justice: Taxonomy of Climate Justice Integrating Theory and Policy Practice, Anjum & Aziz, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70078

Assessing early oil industry awareness of the impacts of fossil fuels on coral reefs using a novel AI agent, Franta et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00215-z

From helicopter to satellite science: shifting climate research practices in Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya, Stuart et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1781604

New list of political jobs at science agencies called ‘weird and capricious’, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aej7945

Russia plans deep quest for ‘endless oil’, Dobrovidova, Science 10.1126/science.aej7952

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Observations of diapycnal upwelling within a sloping submarine canyon, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07411-2 25 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Europe must seize the moment to lead on free and open science, [authors did not process], Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01953-3

The future of global ocean observations: five scenarios, Lehman et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00219-9

‘Alternative COP’ must drive real, cooperative change in climate action, [authors did not process], Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-01423-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103803 14 cites.

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Book reviews

Rejecting climate doomism, Jacques, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2687244

Why heritage sites are at risk in a warming world — and how to save them, Megarry, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01956-0

 

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Powering Down Prices: Policy Solutions to Lower California’s Electricity Rates, Travis Ritchie and Ethan Elkind, The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, UC Berkeley Law

The authors seek to develop actionable solutions to reduce electricity rates in California while furthering the state’s clean energy and climate goals. The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment at UC Berkeley Law (CLEE) convened electricity and utility experts to identify pragmatic and impactful ideas and to assess potential solutions to address electricity affordability in California. Additional research and outreach with stakeholders and decisionmakers led to the development and implementation of the analysis and practical solutions contained herein. Potential reforms include the California Legislature and Public Utilities Commission could limit the use of single-issue ratemaking mandates and tracking accounts, absent extraordinary circumstances. The legislature could increase public and public-private partnership funding of utility capital expenditures. The legislature could direct the public utilities commission to consider further reducing return on equity (in whole or in part), including a split return on equity with a lower return on wildfire mitigation plan and utility infrastructure undergrounding capital expenditures. State and local governments could increase logistical and financial support for community hardening to protect communities and redirect utility mitigation expenses toward efforts that reduce liability. The legislature or leading stakeholders could research and propose longer-term governance reform of the CPUC, including potential measures such as splitting its jurisdiction between energy and other sectors and altering the quasi-judicial processes.

Climate risk in global data center markets, First Street

The authors quantify physical climate risk across 97 investible data center markets and the implications for their underwriting, financing, and valuation. Climate risk already impacts data center markets. Approximately 54% of global capacity operates under chronic stress conditions such as extreme heat or water scarcity, while 79% is exposed to acute hazards, including flood, wind, or wildfire. These risks do not affect all markets equally, creating widening gaps in operating performance, financing conditions, and long-term valuation outcomes, as assets in higher-exposure locations face sustained cost pressures, greater outage risk, and increasing pressure on cash-flow durability. Despite this, climate risk remains underpriced. Markets with similar demand and infrastructure fundamentals are being underwritten as equivalent, even as their long-term cost structures and reliability profiles diverge. This misalignment is beginning to show up in net operating income stability, insurance availability, debt capacity, refinancing terms, and exit valuations. For investors, lenders, and operators, the implications for data centers are clear: climate risk is no longer peripheral. It is a core driver of operating performance, valuation, and credit quality for data centers as an asset class, and it has to be built directly into underwriting, pricing, and capital allocation.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices, Chris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency.

Fixing Climate Communications. Moving beyond narrow narratives to power durable progress, Potential Energy Coalition

Data shows that telling simple, human stories about the impact of an overheating planet on people’s everyday lives is the single best way to power new progress. The authors conducted extensive global research to identify the narratives best positioned to grow the audience; drive increased issue prioritization; inform public dialogue and decision-making; inspire leaders to champion climate solutions; and permeate new media and culture. With the right message, climate change can once again become a broadly relevant public issue. Climate action can become a top citizen priority, a top policy priority, and a message that spreads. The support is still there.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Lithium, Nicole Pouy, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Lithium is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is used in high-performance batteries for electric vehicles, grid storage systems, and consumer electronics, as well as in the production of metals, ceramics, and pharmaceuticals. It is classified by the U.S. Department of Energy as “highly critical” in the medium term (through 2035) due to its importance for energy applications and exposure to supply chain risks.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Cobalt, Laura Gries, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Cobalt is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is widely used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and electronics, and in superalloys for aerospace and industrial applications. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) classifies cobalt as having medium to high importance to the clean energy transition through 2035.

Prospects for U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Energy Cooperation, Christopher Blanchard and Paul Kerr, Congressional Research Service

The 119th Congress is engaging the Trump Administration with regard to U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia's National Project for Atomic Energy and proposals for U.S.-Saudi nuclear energy cooperation. During Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's visit to the United States in November 2025, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a "Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation." Questions surrounding nuclear safeguards, monitoring, and potential production or supply of nuclear fuel are central to the debate in Congress over possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation. Unless waived, a provision of current law (P.L. 116-92, §1264; 42 U.S.C. §2153 note) restricts the executive branch from submitting a Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) required for congressional review of 123 agreements for countries, like Saudi Arabia, that have not agreed to certain international safeguards. Published excerpts of an Administration report to Congress waiving this restriction state that a draft U.S.-Saudi 123 agreement would be implemented with a Bilateral Safeguards Agreement that, "with the involvement" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), would employ not yet publicly specified "additional safeguards and verification measures to the most proliferation sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation."

Advanced Geothermal Energy Is Widely Available, Clean, and Maybe Cheap Enough to Make a Big Impact, Robin Gaster, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

Three advanced geothermal technologies—Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), Advanced Geothermal Systems (AGS), and Superhot Rock Geothermal (SHR)—are poised to transform geothermal from a niche resource into a significant contributor to the U.S. energy mix. EGS produces energy at commercial scale by drilling deeper and applying techniques from oil and gas fracking to geothermal. It has enormous potential. Traditional geothermal faces limitations in identifying and exploiting underground water or brine reservoirs. EGS instead works with hot dry rocks much further underground. Fervo is the industry leader in EGS. It has generated energy at commercial scale and found commercial demand for its output. Its technology is advancing rapidly, and it is successfully funding development with outside capital. However, EGS understandably still relies on clean energy mandates and federal subsidies. More cost reductions will come as the technology scales, and EGS appears to be on the path to price/performance parity with fossil fuels and cheap renewables.

Electric Collective: Europe's Clean Energy Future Without Russia, European Council on Foreign Relations, Szymon Karda?

Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, the EU and member states embarked on “energy diplomacy” in search of new international supplies of energy. Between 2021 and 2026, the EU successfully diversified its sources of energy and reduced its' dependence on Russian fossil fuels. It began working more closely with partners around the world on clean electricity imports and critical raw materials. However, structural weaknesses remain for the EU, including a paucity of clean energy agreements and a preponderance of gas deals locking Europeans into fossil fuel reliance. Most energy diplomacy was undertaken by individual member states. Europeans are therefore currently missing out on the energy security benefits of joint action led either by the EU or by collectives of member states. To strengthen their international energy cooperation, the EU and its member states should agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework, conclude more binding agreements that incorporate clean energy components and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels.

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, Robert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, Smith et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors update the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimate that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah Wesseler

ompared to most American cities, London is a paradise for climate-friendly, car-free transportation. Around a quarter of all trips in the UK capital are made on foot, and cyclists are a frequent sight on many streets. Thousands of buses – many of them electric – and hundreds of train stations serve journeys across the city and destinations farther afield, including continental Europe.

“We see London as a beacon, really, when it comes to progressive and sustainable transport policy,” said Oliver Lord, the UK lead for transportation advocacy group Clean Cities. “London has a lot of influence on the rest of Europe as well, because a lot of people look to it as the only megacity in the continent.”

The local government wants to make it even easier to get around without a car. In 2018, Mayor Sadiq Khan, now serving a third term, set a goal for 80% of all trips to happen on foot, bicycle, or public transportation by 2041 – a significant increase from the then-current figure of 63%. His administration sees reducing driving as critical to meeting its climate goals, improving public health, and generally improving residents’ lives and livelihoods.

The government has taken major steps toward reaching the 80% goal, leading to, among other things, a 43% growth in cycling since 2019.

Despite this, the city is not on track to meet its overall target. As of 2024, the overall percentage of car trips was still roughly equivalent to 2018 figures.

Other indicators show that cars remain a problem. London’s traffic is the worst in Europe and the seventh-worst globally, according to transportation data company INRIX. And climate pollution from road transportation has declined relatively little in the past two decades.

“London has made a lot of progress compared to 10 or 20 years ago,” said Izzy Romilly, who leads sustainable transport campaigns at climate organization Possible. “But compared to what needs to be done, we’re still just not moving fast enough.”

Bike lanes in London. (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

Most concerningly, London’s government is not alone in failing to meet the moment, according to Robin Hickman, a professor of transportation and city planning at University College London. As he wrote in his 2025 book, which compares sustainable urban transportation initiatives around the world, “even in the so-called ‘progressive’ transport cities, transport CO2 emissions are decreasing only marginally.”

Making driving less attractive

Restricting car use is a critical step in reducing car dependency. But in London, as elsewhere in the world, it often provokes intense backlash.

“We know from research going back years that just providing cycle lanes or better pedestrian areas doesn’t necessarily lead to car reduction,” said Jamie Furlong, a transportation researcher at the University of Westminster. “We can achieve more significant reductions in car use by making traveling by car more difficult, and that’s really, really politically difficult.”

Compared to American cities, London has taken bold steps to deprioritize cars. From a global perspective, however, its efforts look relatively limited, Hickman said.

These efforts started in earnest around the turn of the century. In 2003, the city implemented a congestion pricing program that charged drivers £5 ($6.73 in today’s dollars) to enter the designated area on weekdays, using cameras to record license plates. The proceeds were funneled to public transportation.

Although the program affected only a small part of the city, its impact reverberated throughout the transportation network, Lord said.

“It was that policy that initially helped the mayor at the time to introduce bus lanes, because it started to free up some of the capacity on the road network, and it also created a budget to make that investment.” (It also later helped inspire New York City’s congestion pricing program.)

But Hickman said the city’s congestion pricing program had limited direct impact, in part because limited parking in the affected area had always kept some drivers away.

“Overall, it reduced traffic a little bit, but it’s only a very small intervention,” he said.

In 2019, the government introduced a second fee-based program, the Ultra Low Emission Zone, in the city center. It charged drivers of older, more polluting vehicles £12.50 ($16.80 in today’s dollars) to enter the affected area, with the proceeds going to public transportation. In 2023, the program was expanded citywide, despite significant controversy.

Another program that has reshaped parts of the city, low-traffic neighborhoods, has also been contentious. Designed to limit through traffic on residential streets using cameras or physical barriers like planters and curbs, low-traffic neighborhoods reduce climate and air pollution while making it safer to walk and cycle. More than 100 have been rolled out in London, although 27 were later removed due to resident complaints.

Low-traffic neighborhood in outer London (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

In general, however, low-traffic neighborhoods – known as LTNs – tend to be popular, or simply recede into the background once they’re in place, Furlong said.

“The evidence shows, in the UK, lots of people don’t even know that they live in an LTN after it’s been implemented,” he said.

Other efforts to restrict driving include 20-mile-per-hour speed limits covering half the city’s roads and a school streets program that prevents cars from entering streets near affected schools during specific hours. The government is also pedestrianizing much of Oxford Street, the city’s main shopping corridor.

Oxford Street. (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

Recent comments from Mayor Khan have led to speculation that the city may also start charging large cars like SUVs to drive in London. Hickman said this step, along with charging drivers based on the number of miles traveled (which Khan has pledged not to do) and eliminating diesel vehicles, would allow the city to make greater progress on reducing driving.

London on two wheels

Today, some parts of the city are notable for their bike-friendly infrastructure and the number of cyclists on the streets. There are 268 miles of protected bike lanes, with more planned. As bike infrastructure has improved, the number of cycling trips has risen dramatically, growing 43% between 2019 and 2026.

Despite this investment, cycling remains a small player in the overall transportation system, Hickman said. Roughly 5% of trips in the city are made by bike, he noted, compared to an average of 27% in the Netherlands.

(Image credit: coldsnowstorm / Getty Images)

Moreover, cycling infrastructure is highly uneven across the city.

“There are still huge gaps in the cycling network, particularly in outer London,” Furlong said.

This problem occurs partly because each of the city’s 33 local authorities manages its own roads. Local officials’ hesitation to upset the status quo is another important factor, Hickman said: “[London] is very slow in implementing good cycle projects because they tend to be controversial with the car-owning population.”

Public transportation

What has been undeniably successful in the UK capital is mass transit, which carried around 8.8 million rides per day in 2024.

“London is one of the classic public transport cities,” Hickman said. “It has very high public transport use for trips.”

Moreover, the city continues to deliver major new mass transit projects like the Elizabeth Line, a regional express train that opened in 2022 at a cost of £18.8 billion ($25.3 billion).

(Image credit: coldsnowstorm / Getty Images)

Projects like this one tend to be easier to push through in London than efforts to restrict car use or improve bike infrastructure, Hickman said. Unlike in most American cities, Londoners from all walks of life view public transportation positively and believe it’s vital for the economy. Moreover, major mass transit projects tend to align with the logic of UK transportation planning, which weighs projects’ economic impact above factors like public health and climate change.

Although these dynamics have helped mass transit grow, the downside is that major projects often disproportionately serve wealthy communities and business interests, Hickman said. They “tend to link the financial district of London, Canary Wharf; Heathrow Airport … that type of thing. But they don’t really give better public transport for people in the suburbs.”

Suburban car dependency

Outer London, the suburban ring that’s home to more than 5 of the city’s roughly 9 million inhabitants, is much more car-dependent than the central city. Although the region is large and diverse, featuring everything from densely populated high-rise neighborhoods to semirural districts, much of it was built around cars, making walking and cycling more challenging. In a 2022 survey, only 32% of outer London respondents said they could live car-free, compared to half inner Londoners.

In recent years, the government has taken steps to improve public transportation in the suburbs, introducing a new orbital express bus network, adding bus lines, and opening stops on the Elizabeth Line. Generally, however, outer Londoners still have far less access to transit than people in the city center.

This gap creates feedback loops that complicate efforts to reduce driving. Lacking other transportation options, many suburban residents “might spend a huge amount of money on car ownership and use,” Hickman said. “And then if you say that you would like to take away that provision and give them full public transport or expect them to cycle … that doesn’t go down too well.”

Politics also come into play. Many parts of outer London are governed by conservative politicians skeptical of efforts to change the transportation system.

“There’s some unease with the right-wing councils about anything that infringes an individual’s personal freedom to drive where they like,” said Sharon Erdman, a volunteer coordinator at Mums for Lungs, a nonprofit focused on air pollution. “Whereas we feel that it’s not about them driving where they like, it’s about the cost to public health.”

Jane Dutton, a digital communications manager with Mums for Lungs who lives in outer London, said her borough leaders fit the stereotype of suburban politicians actively fighting sustainable transportation initiatives.

“The leaders are very open about absolutely, vehemently opposing things like the ultralow emission zone. They don’t think it’s necessary … They really favor cars over walking and cycling.”

Moreover, outer London officials sympathetic to efforts to reduce car dominance are often afraid to take bold action, Erdman said. In one borough she has worked with, “the council leader is really honest that they are guided by public appetite,” she said.

Since local officials have control over the roads in their communities, these dynamics have huge real-world implications.

“Ultimately, if a borough doesn’t want to do certain things, they don’t have to,” Dutton said.

Political will and public imagination

Making progress on car dependency will require the government to lead more decisively, campaigner Izzy Romilly said.

“In the UK, there’s a real political nervousness around standing up against car dependency,” she said. “But when you actually have a conversation with people, time and again, they want less traffic, they want less congestion. Support for better public transport is absolutely through the roof. So I think it really is just a case of political leadership.”

But London residents also need to do more, Hickman said. Today, “there’s no great public debate” about what kind of transportation system people actually want, he said. “That is needed to dramatically remove road space from the car and give that back to cycling and walking and transport.”

Under John Cook's supervision, Monash University's honours student Ruby Flack spent her thesis deconstructing climate myths in the CARDS taxonomy. With involvement of an interdisciplinary team, her honours thesis was subsequently converted into the paper “Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate” and recently published in Environmental Communication (paywalled) with a free pre-press manuscript available here.

What follows is a quick summary based on John Cook's thread on Bluesky. In the new paper, the authors identify the logical fallacies in a comprehensive taxonomy of contrarian claims about climate change from Coan et al. (2021). An important aspect of this initial research was that it didn't make any judgements about whether the claims were misleading. That's what this new research set out to do.

Figure 1: CARDS Taxonomy - Only “childless claims” (claims with no sub-claims) were deconstructed, indicated by solid color boxes. “Parent claims” (claims with sub-claims) were excluded from deconstruction, indicated by boxes with no coloured fill. All level 1 claims are parent claims, while all level 3 claims are childless claims. Grayed-out claims were excluded from this analysis due to insufficient example paragraphs.

The authors argued that there are a number of limitations to fact-checking. While science myths (like the bulk of the myths debunked by Skeptical Science) are ripe for fact-checking, other types of myths such as policy claims, conspiracy theories, and ad hominem attacks are more challenging. Fact-checking also struggles with arguments that contain hidden premises (or unstated assumptions) which are especially insidious because they can hide where the argument misleads.

They therefore proposed logic-checking as a complement—not a replacement!—to fact-checking. This involves identifying the presence of logical fallacies—an alternative way to tag arguments as misleading. One of the benefits of logic-checking is, that it can address forms of misinformation that fact-checking struggles with. It also has another benefit which will be mentioned later.

In 2018, John Cook worked with critical thinking philosophers to develop a step-by-step methodology for logic-checking. It involves deconstructing claims into an argument structure (one or more premises leading to a conclusion), then checking for hidden premises followed by examining each premise for logical fallacies (Cook et al. 2018):

Figure 2: Simplified deconstruction workflow from Cook et al. (2018)

For this new paper, the authors expanded the 2018 flowchart to make it more practical, working with a variety of real-world misinformation. This was necessary because climate myths can come in a variety of flavours, so before they can be deconstructed, an exemplar version of each contrarian claim needed to be developed. 

Exemplars were sorted into four types depending on how varied the arguments were within each claim. The first two types were where every version of the claim could be represented by the same argument. For example, the argument “CO2 lagging temperature disproves the warming effect of CO2” essentially always takes the same form. The third type was when a claim appeared in different forms but one argument dominated. E.g., the claim “Arctic isn’t melting” took various forms such as “there’s still lots of Arctic sea ice” but most of the time, this argument took the form “Arctic sea ice hasn’t significantly decreased recently.” The fourth type was when some versions of a claim was recategorised into other claims. 

Figure 3: Deconstruction workflow from Flack et al. (2026)

They also clarified the differences between some fallacies that conceptually can be difficult to distinguish—such as cherry picking from slothful induction, and misrepresentation from oversimplification. Wendy Cook created this lovely infographic for the paper.

Figure 4: Infographic explaining two conceptually difficult to distinguish fallacies (from Flack et al. 2026)

The result of this work was a detailed summary of climate myths from the CARDS taxonomy, how each of them was deconstructed, any hidden premises in each myth, and ultimately the logical fallacies in each myth. This table is intended as a resource for anyone wishing to write debunkings of climate myths that use the fact-myth-fallacy format. A more detailed PDF-version of the deconstructed climate contrarian claims is available for download here.

Figure 5: Sample from table 3 summarizing deconstructed climate contrarian claims (Flack et al. 2026)

The authors also identified the most common fallacies in climate misinformation. Slothful induction and cherry picking were the most common, followed by oversimplification and misrepresentation. Single cause (a form of oversimplification) came in fifth.

Figure 6: Bar chart of the most common fallacies in climate misinformation (from Flack et al. 2026)

One of the most significant findings was that 91% of the claims analysed contained hidden premises with fallacies. Almost all misinformation tries to hide how it misleads. This underscores the importance of logic-checking as an essential tool in countering misinformation.

Logic-checking segues seamlessly into logic-based corrections that explain misleading techniques in misinformation. In 2017, John Cook published research finding that logic-based corrections neutralise climate misinformation across the political spectrum. In other words, logic-checking depolarizes misinformation that otherwise has a polarizing effect on the public (Cook et al. 2017).

Bottom line: logic-checking is beneficial both epistemologically (help identify misleading content that fact-checking struggles with) and with communication (neutralising polarizing misinformation). Hopefully, this research will spark both more research and practical interest in logic-checking. 

Reference:
Flack, R., Cook, J., Ellerton, P., Kinkead, D., Coan, T., Boussalis, C., … Dargaville, R. (2026). Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change. Environmental Communication, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2026.2663476 

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

Last week, I attended a meeting at Columbia University on attribution science and climate law, hosted by the Sabin Center. It was a fantastic event, bringing together scientists and legal experts working at the intersection of extreme event attribution and climate law.

For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, severalgroupsanalyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%.

One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages.

Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work.

This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt.

The new Merchants of Doubt

We’ve seen this before. In fact, not that long ago: We only have to go back a year to the Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group (CWG) report to see an example of using doubt as the tool to push back against well-established science.

This strategy is laid out in an email from a member of the CWG, Dr. Roy Spencer, that was released during litigation over the Climate Working Group process.

shameful

The key quote is:

About all I can hope is that what we write will provide sufficient “reasonable scientific doubt” regarding the science claims in the 2009 TSD [technical support document], based upon almost 2 decades of new science, to call into question the original reasoning for the EPA Administrator’s decision that CO2 presents a threat to human health and welfare.

This statement is strong evidence that at least some members of the committee were working to support a particular policy outcome: revoking the Endangerment Finding. The email also explains how they planned to do it: by attempting to generate “reasonable doubt”.

This is going to be hard, Spencer implies. Despite falsely claiming that “2 decades of new science” weakens the case, Spencer explicitly acknowledges that the actual peer-reviewed science of climate change overwhelmingly rejects his position:

But if the science argument is decided upon by a vote, or by the number of published citations, we lose the science argument.

We can go back even further: This CWG email shares unmistakable DNA with the infamous 1969 tobacco memo that declared: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”

equally shameful

The tobacco memo also acknowledges the limit of this strategy: Like the CWG, they knew the science was not on their side.

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The new new Merchants of Doubt

The people attacking the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution are the newest iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. Their goal, like all Merchants before them, is to introduce doubt into the process.

Because the report is not even out yet, they cannot attack its conclusions. So they are attacking the authors instead. Here is a press release from the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee:

In the letter, the Chairmen express concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving members of the Attribution Committee, stating that “publicly available information suggests a troubling pattern” in which committee members are affiliated with nonprofits that support climate accountability lawsuits, “raising the appearance of impropriety and member bias.”

Merchants of Doubt

To be clear, this is just innuendo. There is no actual evidence of bias. And given the robust process that these reports go through, including multiple lines of peer review, it seems very unlikely that significant bias can survive into the report.

When the report comes out, critics will have the opportunity to make legitimate criticisms of the report — if any exist. If none do, however, they’ll still make criticisms, but they’ll be bogus, simply designed to generate doubt. We’ll see.

A note to the press: Fix your frame

To any journalists reading this: The public debate over extreme event attribution science is not going away. The science is simply too dangerous to fossil-fuel interests for them to stop fighting it.

You very well might be assigned to write an article about this area of research in the future. When you do, do not automatically adopt the framing that climate misinformers want you to use.

They want you to frame the story around questions like: Are climate scientists trying to put their thumb on the scale to achieve a predetermined, politically motivated result? Are climate scientists improperly letting their politics invade the science of the IPCC?

That frame is a trap.

Instead, you need to view this through the historical lens of the Merchants of Doubt. How does the ecosystem of doubt operate? Who funds it? What methods do they use to misrepresent science and slime researchers? What scientific results are they trying to keep people from understanding are legitimate?

Ultimately, you need to focus your article on the generation of doubt as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry’s social and legal license to keep burning oil, gas, and coal.

If you treat the misinformers’ frame as a legitimate, good-faith scientific critique, you are helping them produce doubt. Don’t do it. Don’t be a Merchant of Doubt.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 14, 2026 thru Sat, June 20, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

• What's driving up your expenses? Many Americans say climate change Most Democrats and moderate Republicans agree that global warming is increasing the cost of living, a new survey shows. The Daily Climate, Kate Yoder, Jun 14, 2026.
• As Global Warming Threatens Corals Worldwide, Woods Hole Scientists Search for `Super Reefs` That Can Take the Heat If protected, researchers say these coral strongholds may help repopulate more degraded reefs across the Central Pacific. Inside Climate News, Teresa Tomassoni, Jun 14, 2026.
• Tensions Are Rising Between States That Rely on the Colorado River A prolonged drought means the nation’s largest reservoirs are dwindling, and litigation over access to water could lie ahead. NYT, Scott Dance, Jun 15, 2026.
• The `super El Niño` is here. What happens next could upend food systems worldwide How the cyclical weather pattern interacts with climate change could spark hunger around the world. The Daily Climate, Grist, Jun 16, 2026.
• Antarctica Heatwave: Rapid Melt-Off Sparks Warning Over Doomsday Glacier A freak Antarctica heatwave in June has stunned scientists and deepened concern that the rapid melting could accelerate future sea-level rise. IBT, Kenneth Axl, Jun 16, 2026.
• A Texas-size chunk of winter sea ice is missing from Antarctica - and it's probably not coming back An area of ice nearly the size of Texas has failed to form over the Bellingshausen Sea, off western Antarctica, as researchers investigate the links between sea ice loss and global warming. Live Science, Patrick Pester, Jun 16, 2026.
• Climate change is now causing more local extinction in temperate regions than the tropics, study shows Phys.org, Kylianne Chadwick, University of Arizona, Jun 18, 2026.
• Seal pups and seabird chicks are suffering in extreme weather. How can we protect them? The Conversation, Milan Sojitra, Mark Hemer, Sophie Bestley and Stuart Corney, Jun 19, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• ‘Weird and capricious’: Experts struggle to understand new list of political jobs at science agencies NOAA among agencies to be commanded by political apparatchiks. Science, Jeffrey Mervis, June 10, 2026.
• Amoc collapse could change Europe`s climate 10x faster than expected. We aren`t ready The system of ocean current that moves heat in the Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in regulating climate, leaving us to wonder why monitoring of ocean behavior is being discontinued. The Guardian, Penny Holliday, Femke de Jong and Sjoerd Groeskamp, Jun 14, 2026.
• Climate models are missing the first warning signs of deadly Middle East heat waves, study finds Climate change deniers often criticize climate models as just more "alarmism," but here's yet another case where models are in fact underestimating hazards of human-caused climate change. Phys.org, HUJ press release, Jun 17, 2026.
• Trump U-turn on ending ocean initiative comes as UN says science is under attack The Trump administration is pausing plans to dismantle a deep-sea monitoring system after facing fierce opposition. New Zealand Herald, Agence France Presse, Jun 18, 2026.
• Does climate change lead to more migration? Here`s why researchers can`t agree on the evidence Over recent decades, the relationship between climate change and migration has become an active, dynamic field of research, but far from producing a unified view the topic is still plagued with major conceptual, methodological and political discrepancies. The Conversation, Alexis Cloquell Lozano, Beatriz Felipe Pérez, Joan Lacomba Vazquez, María Isolda Perelló Carrascosa, Jun 19, 2026.
• Is Climate Change Supercharging El Niño? As a new, potentially record-breaking El Niño begins, researchers are vigorously debating whether climate change is driving the phenomenon’s intensity. NYT, Chico Harlan, Jun 19, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Denial is back in vogue. As Australia leads climate talks, it`s beyond time we took the issue seriously The Guardian, Adam Morton, Jun 13, 2026.
• The UK has the means to avoid climate policy being driven by culture wars English - The Conversation, Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science, UCL, Jun 15, 2026.
• Bonn climate talks end in "gridlock" on adaptation and emissions-cutting Splits between developed and developing countries over finance and science held back progress on key areas of climate action, leaving disappointment and much work for COP31. Climate Home News, Joe Lo, Jun 18, 2026.
• Trump Administration Backs Off Plan to End Ocean Monitoring System The reversal comes after the Senate passed a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to block the removal of deep-sea monitoring instruments. New York Times, Maxine Joselow, Jun 18, 2026.

Miscellaneous (4 articles)

• 3 facts to ruin your World Cup watch party It's a tough job. But somebody has to do it. HEATED, Emily Atkin, Jun 12, 2026.
• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #24 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 7, 2026 thru Sat, June 13, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 14, 2026.
• Analysis: UK`s EV drivers are now saving £1,100 each a year - and £3bn in total Battery EVs (BEVs) are roughly four times more efficient than combustion-engine cars, making them far cheaper to run – particularly since the Iran crisis caused a spike in fossil-fuel prices. Carbon Brief, Simon Evans, Jun 15, 2026.
• Trump admin abandons fight against wind energy as clean energy output surges Legal victories have dampened the Trump admin’s efforts to halt wind and solar power. Ars Technica, Aman Azhar, Jun 16, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• The easiest climate change win ever Youtube, Simon Clark, June 12, 2026.
• Efforts to combat climate change often exclude Indigenous people-and they may not have any recourse Phys.org, Buket Alt?nçelep, The Conversation, Jun 15, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• One of the world`s most important climate threats has an image problem The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is Immense in size, immense in potential impacts as it shows signs of fading due to warming, and presents similarly large challenges for conveying risks to the general public. The Conversation, Fionagh Thomson, Visiting Research Fellow, Centre for Extragalactic Astronomy, Institute for Computational Cosmology, Durham University, Jun 17, 2026.
• Cooking up the Climate Stripes, with Ed Hawkins June 20 is "Climate Stripes Day" across the world and the creator Ed Hawkins of this iconic graphic recently talked with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan on their "Totally Cooked" podcast about them. 21st Center Weather on Youtube, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan, June 17, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article)

• Science `under attack` from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks A coalition of some rich nations and the world’s most vulnerable have vowed to protect climate science in UN negotiations Climate Home News, Megan Rowling, Jun 17, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• The Shifting Politics of Climate Change A new poll suggests Republicans may be more movable on climate change than previously thought. NYT, David Gelles, Jun 18, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

June 20 is "Climate Stripes Day" across the world and the creator Ed Hawkins of this iconic graphic recently talked with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan on their "Totally Cooked" podcast about them.

From the video's description:

In this episode of Totally Cooked: The Climate & Weather Podcast, hosts Iain Strachan and Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick sit down with one of the world’s most recognisable climate communicators: Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading. Ed is the climate scientist behind the now-iconic Climate Stripes, a deceptively simple graphic made of blue and red bars that tells the story of global warming at a glance. First published in 2018, the stripes visualise more than a century of rising global temperatures, with each stripe representing the average temperature for a single year and shifting from cooler blues to warmer reds as the planet heats up.

The Climate Stripes have travelled far beyond academic journals. Downloaded more than a million times within days of their public release, they’ve appeared everywhere from social media campaigns and fashion to projections on famous landmarks, helping people around the world understand climate change without needing a single axis label or number. In this conversation, Ed explains how the idea emerged from a desire to communicate climate data more clearly, why the stripes resonated so strongly with the public, and how visualisations like the climate spiral (another of his widely shared creations) can make complex science instantly understandable.

But this episode goes beyond the stripes. Ed also discusses his research into climate variability and extreme weather, his work with the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science, and the Weather Rescue citizen science project, which recruits volunteers to digitise historical weather records from handwritten archives. Together, these efforts help scientists extend the climate record further into the past, giving us a clearer picture of how quickly our climate is changing, and why communicating that change effectively matters more than ever.

Iain records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Bunurong People of the Kulin Nation. Sarah records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging and recognise their unique and continuing connection to the land, skies, waters, plants and animals.

Link to the episode's page.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Ben Tracy, Climate Central

If you feel like your electricity bill just keeps climbing, you aren’t imagining it. Since 2020, U.S. residential energy prices have surged by about 30%, making power the largest household energy expense behind gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But for residents like Alex Curtis, the days of feeling powerless against rising costs are coming to an end. Curtis is waging a war on his electric bill, and his new weapon of choice is a lightweight, thin-film solar panel.

“Oh, it’s super light too,” Curtis remarked as he unboxed the kit on the balcony of his condo in Sunnyvale, California. It weighs just about 10 pounds. 

The ‘plug-and-play’ revolution Unlike traditional rooftop solar, which requires thousands of dollars in upfront costs, specialized mounting hardware, and professional electricians, this system is designed for the everyday consumer. It’s a $400 kit from Bright Saver, a non-profit advocating for “plug-and-play” solar that works for renters and homeowners alike.

The setup is deceptively simple: you hang the panel on a balcony or prop it up in a backyard and plug it directly into a standard wall outlet.

“I did some rough math and this might save me like $30 to $50 a month,” Curtis said.

The magic happens behind the scenes. Once plugged in, a small inverter syncs the solar energy with the home’s existing electrical infrastructure. It took about 15 minutes to get it all set up. Bright Saver’s Rupert Mayer then pointed to a light on the inverter: “Ah, here it is, it’s blue.”

“This is it. Easy,” Curtis replied. Within minutes, he was generating his own clean energy. He estimates it will be enough to power an appliance like his refrigerator. 

Small panels, big impact

Cora Stryker, co-founder of Bright Saver, believes this technology is key to democratizing the green energy transition. It not only cuts an individual’s planet-warming pollution but also their electric bill. 

“Clean energy actually is the cheapest form of energy around,” Stryker said, “and we the consumers should be benefiting from that.”

While these panels won’t take a home entirely off the grid, Stryker says the units can trim monthly costs by 10% to 25% depending on how many panels a user installs. More savings can be had if the panels are paired with batteries that can store excess solar energy. 

“They cover a part of your energy bill and then you do need to draw the rest from the grid as you do now,” Stryker explained. 

The “Balkonkraftwerk” trend

While the technology is just gaining a foothold in the U.S., it is already a cultural phenomenon in Europe. In Germany, these systems are so common they have a specific name: Balkonkraftwerk, or “balcony power plant.”

An estimated 4 million balcony solar units are currently installed in Germany. The U.S., however, has been slower to adopt the tech, largely due to a patchwork of utility regulations and bureaucratic red tape. Utilities in some states have pushed back against the use of these systems citing potential hazards to the safety of the grid and line workers. 

“And that is patently ridiculous for these little systems,” Stryker said. “Those laws were intended for rooftop systems 5 to 20 times as large.”

A changing legal landscape

The tide is quickly turning. In 2025, Utah became the first state to officially authorize plug-in solar. Overall, 34 states and Washington, D.C., have introduced legislation to allow for use of the technology. It has passed in Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Virginia. 

For advocates like Stryker, it’s a matter of personal liberty: “It’s kind of like ‘don’t tell me what to do in my own backyard and on my own balcony.’”

As for Alex Curtis, he knows his Sunnyvale neighbors might have questions when they see the sleek panel hanging from his railing, but he’s focused on his newfound taste of energy independence. 

“I think that’s what gets me excited,” Curtis said. “Being able to power my own stuff and be self- sufficient like in baby steps which is pretty cool.”

Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people’s lives. It is a policy-neutral 501(c)(3) nonprofit.

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Does solar energy need subsidies to compete with fossil fuels?

Unsubsidized utility-scale solar is now generally cheaper than building fossil fuel power plants.

Costs are often compared using “levelized cost of energy,” the average lifetime cost to build and run a power plant divided by the electricity it produces. A 2025 analysis estimates the mean LCOE of utility-scale solar at about $58 per megawatt-hour without subsidies, compared to $79 for new natural gas plants and $128 for new coal. The International Energy Agency reports solar energy is the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most parts of the world.

Solar costs have fallen sharply over the past decade as panel prices have dropped and the industry has grown. Subsidies can further lower costs, but solar is not dependent on them to compete with fossil fuels.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2020

Lazard Lazard Releases 2025 Levelized Cost of Energy+ Report

Reuters Around 90% of renewables cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide, IRENA says

Scientific American Wind and Solar Energy Are Cheaper Than Electricity from Fossil-Fuel Plants

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’ve often come across graphs on social media showing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, with various dates of climate agreements highlighted. Shared by doomers and skeptics alike, they are used to argue that the rise of CO2 concentrations is inexorable and has not (or perhaps cannot) be slowed by actions we take.

One example from the Orwellian-named climate skeptic group “Friends of Science”.

On the other hand global CO2 emissions – the very precursors to those concentrations – have largely plateaued. After increasing by more than 20% in the 2000s, CO2 emissions today are a mere 3% higher than they were in 2013. This plateau has been driven in part by a rapid expansion of clean energy globally, with spending on clean energy rising from around $600 billion in 2020 to $2.3 trillion in 2025. At the same time we’ve seen notable reductions in land use emissions associated with reduced rates of deforestation in countries like Brazil.

Figure via Carbon Brief.

So if global CO2 emissions are flattening, why do atmospheric concentrations appear to be growing unabated? The answer is in the persistent nature of atmospheric CO2.

About half of the CO2 humans emit into the atmosphere remains there for at least a century (and about 20% for more than 10,000 years), with the remainder being absorbed by land (mostly vegetation) and ocean (mostly geochemical) carbon sinks. This means that even with flat CO2 emissions we would expect atmospheric CO2 concentrations to increase – that concentrations are approximately the integral of annual emissions.

This means that, generally speaking, if emissions remain flat concentrations would linearly increase. If emissions increase, concentration growth accelerates, while if emissions fall, concentration growth slows down. Its a bit more complicated in practice – unlike for temperatures we can get atmospheric CO2 concentrations to fall if emissions are reduced enough, where sinks take up more CO2 than we emit. But broadly speaking we expect atmospheric CO2 to keep growing until we cut emissions pretty substantially (e.g. to <50% of current levels).

Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.

What we can do, however, is use reduced-complexity carbon-cycle models to examine how different atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been if global emissions had not plateaued. To start with, lets assess what would have happened to global CO2 emissions if they had continued increasing at the ~2.2% per year that we saw in the 2000s. This is shown in the figure below.

Next lets use a reduced complexity carbon cycle model to convert these additional emissions into atmospheric concentrations. Here I am using the Joos et al (2013) impulse response function which describes the fraction of a one-year pulse of CO? that stays in the atmosphere as the ocean and land sinks gradually draw it down. These pulses are then convolved into changes in atmospheric concentrations over time.

Here we see that atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been approximately 8 ppm higher if global emissions had not plateaued over the past 13 years.

Finally, lets add in annual variability in atmospheric CO2, both observed (blue line) and modeled (red line).

We can also extend this all the way back to the start of the record. As expected, a plateauing of global CO2 emissions transitioned us from an accelerated growth rate to a more linear growth rate. Its not a dramatic swing – global CO2 emissions remain at above 40 billion tons per year! – but its at least some detectable progress away from a much worse emissions future.

What are the takeaways here? Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are still climbing despite some success in flattening global emissions. But this is generally what we’d expect; if emissions had continued to increase concentrations would be noticeably higher and accelerating rather than exhibiting a more linear increase. Observed increases in atmospheric CO2 are, if anything, a bit on the low end (though still in the uncertainty range) of what the model expects based on observed emissions.1 I’ve included a more detailed writeup and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

So next time someone shows you a graph of CO2 concentrations and argues that nothing is changing, you can show them how much worse it would have been had we really done nothing to change our emissions trajectory.

Update

I got a number of questions from folks about the role of slower growth in fossil emissions vs falling land use emissions in driving these changes. It turns out that around 78% of the avoided increase in atmospheric CO2 is attributable to fossil emissions, and 22% to land use. The GitHub repo has more details on this sensitivity test.

1 This suggests that it is our emissions, not recent changes in carbon cycle feedbacks, that are the main driver of growth in atmospheric concentrations. That being said, we still expect some weakening of carbon sinks in a warmer world – something we have started to see in the data.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 7, 2026 thru Sat, June 13, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• What happens when the world`s breadbaskets start failing simultaneously? The Conversation, Ekamjot Dhillon, Jun 07, 2026.
• This 1,000-year-old pine tree`s protector fears changing weather patterns Mayors from around the world gathered last week in Huangshan to discuss how to protect their cities from climate change and overtourism. NBC News World News, Jennifer Jett, Jun 07, 2026.
• `Severe` stress on oceans as rate of sea level rise doubles in 10 years, UN warns Global effort needed to limit effects of pollution, industrial fishing and climate crisis, World Ocean Assessment says. The Guardian, Karen McVeigh, Jun 08, 2026.
• Climate change has already made Australians in one state much poorer, and more`s to come Researchers ask ''“What would the Australian state of New South Wales economy look like today if historical emissions of greenhouse gases had not caused climate change?'' English, Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics and the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Ben Newell, Professor of Cognitive Psychology and Director of the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Jun 09, 2026.
• Four days of extreme rain in Indonesia killed 7% of world`s rarest great apes, study finds Critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan population falls after heavy rain and landslides, fuelled by climate crisis, in North Sumatra The Guardian, Katie Ward, Jun 10, 2026.
• How Climate Change is Making Your Life More Expensive Extreme weather driven by climate change is pushing up prices for everyone. TIME, Simmone Shah, Jun 11, 2026.
• Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as UK heats up Hotter and drier weather in the UK means the ground underneath homes could shrink in a process known as subsidence, dragging foundations down, according to the British Geological Survey (BGS). The Independent News, Nicole Wootton-Cane, Jun 11, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (5 articles)

• The weather and climate science AI revolution isn`t revolutionary Machine learning has its limits—how is it being used? Ars Technica, Scott K. Johnson, Jun 08, 2026.
• Ocean monitoring is in trouble: without the US, it`s up to Europe and Asia to avoid losing sight of the world`s deep-sea ecosystems The world relies on a modest number of countries to keep watch over the ocean and that arrangement is starting to fail; Europe and Asia must now decide whether to let the system unravel, or to take it up together. English, Sabrina Speich, John Abraham, Kevin Trenberth, Lijing Cheng, Jun 09, 2026.
• Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jun 09, 2026.
• Inside the campaign to discredit a key climate science report An emerging field of research that can measure how much climate change has worsened individual disasters is under attack by friends of the fossil fuel industry, with billions of dollars at stake. Politico, Corbin Hiar, Lesley Clark and Chelsea Harvey, Jun 11, 2026.
• The Climate Change Culprits Not Addressed by Global Policy A new paper suggests that 15 percent of human-driven global warming has come from indirectly created greenhouse gases, off the books from current control plans. Inside Climate News, Nina Sablan, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• Are Australia`s carbon farming schemes just hot air? Hardly - forests are regrowing almost everywhere The Conversation, Cris Brack, Jun 07, 2026.
• Airline industry chiefs say 2050 net zero goal now unlikely Iata boss Willie Walsh blames fuel suppliers, governments and aircraft makers, saying new ‘realistic timeline’ now needed The Guardian, Gwyn Topham, Jun 08, 2026.
• Round-the-Clock Renewables Beat Fossil Fuels Climate Adam on Youtube, Adam Levy, June 11, 2026.
• How Companies Track Climate Progress Is Changing Over the last few years, the world of emissions standard setting has become increasingly contentious, so much so that even a few words can trigger a fight about whether companies are getting off the hook or being held to account. TIME, Justin Worland, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (3 articles)

• Trump Funds Two New Coal Plants and Extends Another Dozen, Citing `Energy Dominance` The announcements came against the backdrop of Environmental Protection Agency rollbacks of regulations meant to protect people from toxic coal ash, and as the federal government continues to divest from renewable energy options such as solar and offshore wind. Inside Climate News, Steven Rodas, Jun 06, 2026.
• Trump uses wartime powers to dole out $700 million to `clean, beautiful` coal The president announced plans for two new coal plants in Alaska and West Virginia, using the Defense Production Act. Grist, Oliver Milman, Jun 07, 2026.
• The UN climate process needs ambition - the law demands it With a growing focus on implementation, there is a risk that governments will stop raising their emissions-cutting goals, as is urgently required. Climate Home News, Helen Popper, Jun 09, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 31, 2026 thru Sat, June 6, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 07, 2026.
• Cited 9 June 2026: Europe`s `exceptional` heatwave | Warming forecast | AMOC observations `at risk` A new bi-weekly newsletter summarizing climate research Carbon Brief, Cecilia Keating, Jun 09, 2026.
• Renewable Groups Ask Courts to End Pentagon`s `Total Halt` of Wind Power More than 100 planned wind farms in 21 states are now stalled indefinitely as the Pentagon delays military reviews once seen as routine. New York Times, Brad Plumer, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Climate crisis or climate progress? Two leading scientists separate fear from fact Anastasia Isyuk from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) communications team sat down with two climate experts: Katharine Hayhoe, one of the world’s best-known climate researchers, and Andrea Hinwood, UNEP’s Chief Scientist. UN Environment Program, Anastasia Isyuk, May 29, 2026.
• A new DC `museum` raises awareness about the looming consequences of extreme weather At the Museum of Unnatural Disasters, members of Congress, disaster survivors and activists are bringing their worries about preparedness to the seat of power. Inside Climate News, Gabriel Matias Castilho, Jun 08, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 articles)

• UN officials urge Russia to free Indigenous climate advocate Egereva in particular has been a fixture in international climate discussions and was arrested in December shortly after returning from COP where she spoke publicly on the importance of having more Indigenous women participate in climate talks. Grist, Anita Hofschneider, Jun 10, 2026.
• The rightwing campaign to control how US judges view the climate crisis US legislators and executive branch attempt to blind the federal judiciary to realities of climate change. The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Jun 10, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article)

• European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels Some European, small island and other nations argue the forthcoming roadmap should be part of UN climate talks, while Russia has resisted this idea Climate Home News, Joe Lo, Jun 12, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Have politics finally come for the National Academies of Science? Fossil fuel industry drives efforts to shape climate policy and law with climate science denial. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jun 12, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!